1/09/2008

Gulf of Tonkin, 2008 Edition

With the GOP in electoral disarray and the various candidates loath to mention President Bush on the campaign trail, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton duking it out for the Democratic nomination, the time is ripe for some good old-fashioned emotional manipulation.

Such was my reaction upon hearing of the supposed confrontation between American warships and Iranian speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz. We all know that Darth Cheney and his neocon cabal in the Bush Administration have been hot for war with Iran for years, right up there with attacking Iraq. The collapse of their "Iran is building nukes" line with the release of the National Intelligence Estimate last month simply made them change direction.

And so now we have a highly suspicious incident in a highly volatile section of the world, one that is crucial to the shipment of Middle Eastern oil. Sounds like the Gulf of Tonkin incident all over again.

For those who have forgotten, there was a loudly-decried confrontation in 1964 between an American destroyer and several North Vietnamese torpedo boats in the Gulf of Tonkin, off the coast of North Vietnam. President Lyndon Johnson seized on the incident and used it to launch the full-scale Vietnam War. Decades later, it was determined that the supposed attack never occurred at all, and the destroyer crew was shooting at nothing. But at the time, Johnson announced that "the United States is united in its determination to bring about the end of Communist subversion and aggression in the area."

We all know the result.

This latest "incident" between the US and Iran sounds awfully familiar. At a time when Tehran is seeking to defuse tensions with Washington, why in the world would they take action to raise them? And it cannot be a coincidence that the Administration, which loudly blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guard for supposedly getting involved in the Iraqi civil war (even though no real evidence was ever presented) now loudly blames the same people for this alleged confrontation. The supposed incident took place right before the key New Hampshire primary election as well as on the eve of Bush's trip to the Middle East, in which he is expected to rally regional support against Iran. What better way to do that than to "prove" Iranian aggression?

This whole thing stinks to high heaven of duplicity and manipulation. Will Congress and the American people fall for a second Tonkin-style fake?

UPDATE: CNN is reporting that Bush turned up the rhetoric in a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, calling Iran "a threat to world peace" and warning of "serious consequences." It's the same saber-rattling that preceded the invasion of Iraq. I have a sinking "here we go again" feeling...

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